Breast cancer management pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the UK ‘Alert Level 4’ phase of the B-MaP-C study

Background The B-MaP-C study aimed to determine alterations to breast cancer (BC) management during the peak transmission period of the UK COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of these treatment decisions.Methods This was a national cohort study of patients with early BC undergoing multidisciplinary team (MDT)-guided treatment recommendations during the pandemic, designated ‘standard’ or ‘COVID-altered’, in the preoperative, operative and post-operative setting.Findings Of 3776 patients (from 64 UK units) in the study, 2246 (59%) had ‘COVID-altered’ management. ‘Bridging’ endocrine therapy was used (n = 951) where theatre capacity was reduced. There was increasing access to COVID-19 low-risk theatres during the study period (59%). In line with national guidance, immediate breast reconstruction was avoided (n = 299). Where adjuvant chemotherapy was omitted (n = 81), the median benefit was only 3% (IQR 2–9%) using ‘NHS Predict’. There was the rapid adoption of new evidence-based hypofractionated radiotherapy (n = 781, from 46 units). Only 14 patients (1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during their treatment journey.Conclusions The majority of ‘COVID-altered’ management decisions were largely in line with pre-COVID evidence-based guidelines, implying that breast cancer survival outcomes are unlikely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, in this study, the potential impact of delays to BC presentation or diagnosis remains unknown.Subject terms: Breast cancer, Surgical oncology, Health care economics, Quality of life, Health policy     

The potential public health and economic value of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine in the United States: Use of cost-effectiveness modeling to inform vaccination prioritization

BackgroundResearchers are working at unprecedented speed to develop a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. We aimed to assess the value of a hypothetical vaccine and its potential public health impact when prioritization is required due to supply constraints.MethodsA Markov cohort model was used to estimate COVID-19 related direct medical costs and deaths in the United States (US), with and without implementation of a 60% efficacious vaccine. To prioritize the vaccine under constrained supply, the population was divided into tiers based on age; risk and age; and occupation and age; and outcomes were compared across one year under various supply assumptions. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus no vaccine was calculated for the entire adult population and for each tier in the three prioritization schemes.ResultsThe incremental cost per QALY gained for the US adult population was $8,200 versus no vaccination. For the tiers at highest risk of complications from COVID-19, such as those ages 65 years and older, vaccination was cost-saving compared to no vaccination. The cost per QALY gained increased to over $94,000 for those with a low risk of hospitalization and death following infection. Results were most sensitive to infection incidence, vaccine price, the cost of treating COVID-19, and vaccine efficacy. Under the most optimistic supply scenario, the hypothetical vaccine may prevent 31% of expected deaths. As supply becomes more constrained, only 23% of deaths may be prevented. In lower supply scenarios, prioritization becomes more important to maximize the number of deaths prevented.ConclusionsA COVID-19 vaccine is predicted to be good value for money (cost per QALY gained <$50,000). The speed at which an effective vaccine can be made available will determine how much morbidity and mortality may be prevented in the US.     

Abnormal glucose tolerance in a pediatric cystic fibrosis cohort: Trends in clinical outcomes and associated factors in the preceding years

Background and aimsDeterioration of anthropometric and lung function parameters was shown to precede the onset of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD) in adults. In children, studies have been conducted in small cohorts with relatively short observation period. Study objectives were to document the longitudinal trends of anthropometric, pulmonary, nutritional and metabolic parameters from cystic fibrosis (CF) diagnosis to the ascertainment of abnormal glucose tolerance and identify parameters associated with the incidence of such abnormalities in a pediatric CF cohort.Methods and resultsRetrospective cohort study of 281 children with CF. Longitudinal trends of anthropometric, lung function, nutritional and metabolic data were generated from CF diagnosis to the ascertainment of abnormal glucose tolerance defined as the presence of either impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), unconfirmed CFRD or CFRD. Cox models and Kaplan–Meier curves were used to identify factors associated with developing abnormal glucose tolerance.Forty-five percent of cohort had normal glucose tolerance (NGT), 27% IGT, 10% unconfirmed CFRD and 18% CFRD. Children who developed CFRD displayed lower height z-scores from a very early age. Conversely, HbA1c levels began to rise closer to CFRD ascertainment. Height z-scores (HR: 0.45; CI 95% [0.29–0.69]) and HbA1c (HR: 2.43; CI 95% [1.86–3.18]) in years preceding ascertainment were associated with the risk of developing CFRD.ConclusionChildren who developed CFRD display distinctive trends for height z-scores from a very early age, whereas HbA1c appears as a marker of established glucose metabolism derangements.     

A propensity score–matched analysis indicates screening for asymptomatic coronary artery disease does not predict cardiac events in kidney transplant recipients

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